Finally, finals are over, and I’m doing a bushel of grading. The bulk of it is logic exams, which we now give on paper because otherwise, students would cheat using GenAI tools.
Argh. Sigh.
Speaking of logic, though, I’m reminded of one of my favorite cognitive biases: the Dunning-Kruger effect. This cognitive bias happens when we wildly overestimate our own knowledge or competence when we ourselves have very limited knowledge or abilities in some area.
I’ve used this graph when I teach this bias in class. What it lacks in technical jargon it makes up for in humor and clarity.
My favorite example of this is a result from 2019, where a poll showed that 1 in 8 British men (12%) believed that they could take a point off Serena Williams in play. By contrast, only 3% of British women polled held this belief. What explains the difference?
This article from 2025 on overconfidence in beginner sports players offers a few insights. The bad combo of overconfidence and low self-awareness alongside low competence that some beginners have results in low performance (and sometimes injuries or accidents).
But what about so-called “beginner’s mind”? Isn’t being a beginner supposed to free us from expectations and limitations? This article explains:
It’s dropping our expectations and preconceived ideas about something, and seeing things with an open mind, fresh eyes, just like a beginner. If you’ve ever learned something new, you can remember what that’s like: you’re probably confused, because you don’t know how to do whatever you’re learning, but you’re also looking at everything as if it’s brand new, perhaps with curiosity and wonder. That’s beginner’s mind.
In yoga classes, I try to maintain beginner’s mind (to go along with my beginner’s ability), even though I’ve been practicing for years. It’s just more fun for me, taking it one pose at a time, exploring what it’s like (including the difficulties and physical limitations of my own musculature and range of flexibility) to do some pose or other.
Except for hero pose. I cannot now, nor have I ever been able to do that one. Go ahead, judge me.
This post came about not just because I’m trying to distract myself from grading, by the way. I saw this YouGov poll in which Americans were asked if they thought they could beat Donald Trump in a fistfight. Turns out that more Democratic women respondents believe they could beat Trump in a fight than Republican men respondents. Here’s the data:
So my question I leave you with, dear readers is: Is this Dunning-Kruger effect, some form of beginner’s mindset, or are lots of women fed up with Trump and locked and loaded for a one-on-one showdown? You make the call…
Happy Wednesday!
